What is cloud seeding and did it impact Dubai's floods?

Stranded hose passengers and a feline submerged successful floodwaters clinging to a car doorway grip became notable moments this week successful Dubai arsenic nan usually arid metropolis was inundated pinch historical levels of rain. Claims person gone viral that nan deluge was brought connected by unreality seeding, a method that intends to summation precipitation, that is heavy utilized successful nan United Arab Emirates. 

But is it really to blame? 

Daniel Swain, a ambiance intelligence astatine nan University of California, Los Angeles, said that getting to nan bottommost of nan "record-shattering utmost rainfall" requires breaking down nan subject down nan arena and nan technique. 

"There's presently a disconnect successful nan online sermon betwixt nan benignant of quality activities that apt did impact it (greenhouse warming) versus those which person really been nan attraction of nan online speech frankincense acold (cloud seeding), and what this intends for really we collectively understand our expertise to actively impact nan upwind connected different spatial and temporal scales," he said successful an emailed statement. 

What is unreality seeding? 

Many person questioned since nan downpour successful Dubai whether unreality seeding was to blame. But what is unreality seeding and really does it activity exactly?

Cloud seeding is simply a method utilized to amended precipitation. According to nan Desert Research Institute, scientists do this by putting mini particles called nuclei into nan ambiance that connect to clouds.

"These nuclei supply a guidelines for snowflakes to form. After unreality seeding takes place, nan recently formed snowflakes quickly turn and autumn from nan clouds backmost to nan aboveground of nan Earth, expanding snowpack and streamflow," nan institute says. 

In nan Middle East, alternatively of precipitation successful nan shape of snow, its unreality seeding programme generates accrued rain. 

Scientists typically spell astir unreality seeding successful 2 ways – utilizing either generators connected nan crushed aliases distributing nan nuclei via aircraft. 

A driver walks on a flooded road aft a rainstorm successful Dubai, United Arab Emirates, connected Wednesday, April 17, 2024.  Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images

What caused nan rainfall successful Dubai? 

But was nan rainfall successful Dubai from unreality seeding? 

"Did unreality seeding play a role? Likely no," Swain said. "But really astir ambiance change? Likely yes!" 

The world is continuing to spot period aft period of record-breaking power and 2023 was nan hottest twelvemonth globally ever recorded. Scientists person recovered that warmer temperatures summation evaporation, resulting successful much predominant and aggravated storms, specified arsenic nan 1 that occurred successful Dubai. Those conditions besides substance different utmost upwind events, including droughts, putting opposing forces astatine aggravated likelihood that will apt strain communities without capable adaptation. 

Andrew Kruczkiewicz, elder interrogator astatine Columbia Climate School, told CBS News he doesn't judge there's immoderate existent grounds astatine this clip that unreality seeding pushed nan downpour complete nan edge. 

"This arena was forecast reasonably good days successful beforehand and I deliberation it's improbable that a unreality seeding cognition would move guardant fixed nan well-forecast aggravated rainfall," he said.

The nation's National Emergency Crisis and Management Authority issued upwind warnings connected Monday earlier nan storm's arrival, urging group to comply pinch section instructions from authorities and asking them to enactment astatine location and only time off successful nan lawsuit of an emergency. 

Meteorologist Ryan Maue, erstwhile main intelligence astatine nan U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, gave nan Associated Press a much definitive answer: "It's astir surely not unreality seeding." 

"If that occurred pinch cloud seeding, they'd person h2o each nan time," he said. "...when it comes to controlling individual rainfall storms, we are not anyplace adjacent to that. And if we were tin of doing that, I deliberation we would beryllium tin of solving galore much difficult problems than creating a rainfall ablution complete Dubai."

The deluge, he said, "speaks much to questions astir what are nan resilience measures that are integrated into nan municipality readying modular operating procedures." 

"Almost everyplace connected Earth location is simply a consequence of flash flooding," he said. "Yet, since it's not nan astir predominant type of utmost event, sometimes it's little connected nan privilege database erstwhile decisions request to beryllium made astir infrastructure aliases resilience, aliases conscionable municipality improvement much broadly."  

How important was nan flooding successful Dubai?  

More than 5.59 inches of rainfall fell complete Dubai wrong 24 hours. While a half-foot of rainfall whitethorn not look for illustration overmuch numerically, that's much than what nan metropolis sees successful an mean year, and different parts of nan UAE saw moreover higher levels. 

It was a "historic upwind event," nan state-run WAM news agency said, adding that it was beyond "anything documented since nan commencement of information postulation successful 1949." 

Dubai is usually barren and pinch a downpour for illustration this being truthful unprecedented, nan city's infrastructure was not prepared. The drainage systems were overwhelmed and Dubai International Airport, 1 of nan busiest successful nan world, had to temporarily halt operations. One level rider told Reuters galore group were waiting much than 12 hours to beryllium capable to resume travel. Footage from nan airdrome shows planes taxiing successful eerie floodwaters. 

"Over a year's worthy of rainfall was knowledgeable successful conscionable a fewer hours," Kruczkiewicz told CBS News. "And why that's important to to understand is that erstwhile you spot this magnitude of rainfall successful semi-arid arid area, nan ungraded isn't designed to select nan h2o arsenic accelerated arsenic successful different areas. ... You don't request that overmuch h2o falling aliases rainfall falling successful a short play of clip to origin awesome issues." 

Is unreality seeding effective? 

According to nan Desert Research Institute, how effective unreality seeding is depends connected nan circumstantial task successful which it's being used. Citing respective studies, nan institute said it's helped summation wide snowpack successful immoderate areas by astatine slightest 10% per year. Another study recovered that a five-year task successful New South Wales, Australia resulted successful a 14% snowfall increase.  

The UAE's National Center of Meteorology launched nan Research Program for Rain Enhancement Science to beforehand nan technology, saying that for dryer regions crossed nan world, unreality seeding "could connection a viable, cost-effective supplement to existing h2o supplies." Many regions moreover beyond nan Middle East person been suffering from h2o scarcity issues, including Colombia, Mexico and Hawaii. 

In:
• Science of Weather
• United Arab Emirates
• Climate Change
• Severe Weather
• Flooding
• Flood
• Dubai