University of Pennsylvania forecasts highly active Atlantic hurricane season

Scientists astatine nan University of Pennsylvania are predicting an estimated 33 named storms for nan 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Some of those storms will beryllium tropical (such arsenic nan effects near successful nan aftermath of Harvey successful Texas successful 2017, pictured) but galore will go hurricanes, too. File Photo by Jerome Hicks/UPI | License Photo

April 25 (UPI) -- University of Pennsylvania scientists are predicting an estimated 33 named storms for nan 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

University of Pennsylvania scientists Dr. Michael Mann, Shannon Christiansen and Penn State alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar made nan forecast for nan approaching hurricane season, which originates June 1 and runs until nan extremity of November.

Aside from their wide prediction for estimated named storms, their prediction really ranges betwixt 27 and 39 imaginable named storms this year.

"We've seen galore hyperactive seasons complete nan past decade, and successful conscionable astir each cases, for illustration our prediction for this year, nan activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions successful nan tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming," said Mann, head of nan Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and Media.

The forecast takes into relationship respective cardinal ambiance variables.

"It takes into relationship nan existent Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures, which importantly power hurricane improvement by providing nan basal power and energy," Christiansen said. "We besides facet successful nan El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions, arsenic shifts betwixt El Niño and La Niña tin dramatically change atmospheric patterns that either heighten aliases suppress hurricane activity."

If El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions neutralize later this year, Mann and Christiansen foretell somewhat reduced activity ranging betwixt 25-36 storms.

Earlier this month, Colorado State University besides predicted an highly progressive 2024 hurricane season, attributed to grounds lukewarm h2o temperatures successful nan Atlantic Ocean.

CSU's Tropical Weather and Climate squad predicted 23 named storms and said 11 are expected to go hurricanes.

The CSU forecast predicts a 62% chance of a awesome hurricane making landfall anyplace on nan U.S. coastline.

That compares to an mean landfall chance of 43% from 1880-2020.