2 weeks ago
Economy apical of mind for 2024 voters: Poll
As Democrats play defense successful U.S. Senate races this year, 2 battleground-state incumbents commencement retired up successful their reelection campaigns. Bob Casey successful Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin successful Wisconsin are presently starring their lesser-known Republican challengers by 7 points.
Both Casey and Baldwin enjoyed ample margins of triumph successful 2018, but their reelection bids look much competitory astatine nan infinitesimal successful what is simply a much challenging environment. We find plentifulness of undecided voters and bully reasons for nan races to tighten arsenic nan campaigns power up this fall.
Why things mightiness change
These estimates are snapshots of nan title early successful nan predetermination cycle. With respective months to spell earlier voting starts, location is plentifulness of clip for movement.
So here's why things could change: For one, nan Republicans successful nan title are not good known to voters. It was nether a week agone that David McCormick officially became nan GOP nominee successful Pennsylvania. He besides ran for Senate successful 2022, but mislaid to Mehmet Oz successful nan GOP primary. Eric Hovde successful Wisconsin is presently much little familiar to voters than Baldwin, but nan superior location isn't until August, giving him plentifulness of clip to get connected voters' radars and make his case.
Despite enjoying higher sanction nickname than their challengers, some Casey and Baldwin are nether 50% successful nan existent preferences of apt voters. That leaves immoderate activity for them to do to seduce capable undecided voters to get them complete nan top. And they would beryllium doing truthful successful a different situation than nan 1 six years ago. Back then, wide anger toward Donald Trump propelled immense turnout and a blue wave. Today, galore voters are unhappy pinch President Biden's occupation performance, and nan presidential title is very competitive successful these states correct now.
And importantly, erstwhile you look astatine their caller votes for president and Congress, nan undecided successful these Senate races are by and ample Republican voters — not astonishing since they whitethorn not yet beryllium acquainted pinch their party's nominee. They're mostly voting for Trump astatine nan apical of nan ticket. So location are tons of voters up for grabs who different thin Republican.
Given nan decline successful summons splitting, our baseline anticipation should beryllium that these undecided voters will prime GOP candidates down ballot. In fact, only 5% of apt voters successful Pennsylvania and 4% successful Wisconsin are presently choosing different parties for president and Senate, somewhat benefiting nan Democratic senators astatine nan moment. If undecided voters were choosing nan aforesaid statement for president and Senate, nan separator successful some races would tighten to nether 5 points.
These CBS News/YouGov surveys were conducted betwixt April 19-25, 2024. They are based connected typical samples of 1,306 registered voters successful Pennsylvania and 1,245 successful Wisconsin. Margins of correction for apt voters are ±3.1 points successful Pennsylvania and ±3.3 points successful Wisconsin.
Pennysylvania toplines
Wisconsin toplines
- In:
- Pennsylvania
- Bob Casey
- United States Senate
- Opinion Poll
- Wisconsin
Kabir Khanna
Kabir Khanna is Deputy Director, Elections & Data Analytics astatine CBS News. He conducts surveys, develops statistical models, and projects races astatine nan web Decision Desk. His scholarly investigation centers connected governmental behaviour and methodology. He holds a PhD successful governmental subject from Princeton University.
